This has been one of the hardest weeks of my life. We say that and then something worse happens. I began this blog because of 9/11.
This is worse. Worse personally because I have more to lose. Professionally because I have more responsibility. Emotionally because I also lost a friend to fucking murder last week. And for the world, because it involves the entire world. (Though the fallout of the wars after 9/11 would also qualify but who’s keeping track).
In trying to make sense of what we are facing with this virus, I’ve been overwhelmed by the scientific information, underwhelmed by the government response, and feel generally confused.
The post copied below really helped me today.
I was finally successful in quitting smoking years ago because I heard a radio snippet beautifully describing what is actually happening to your lungs during morning cough. The lungs sweepers are waking up and sweeping out the junk like seaweed in the waves and when you take that first delicious morning smoke, that puts them to sleep and they wilt and stop working and that is why the cough subsides.
This firebreak analogy speaks to me in the same powerful way:
——————————-
Hi Friends: It has been a week since my last post. If you understood it, you realize that the increasing numbers of people with Covid 19 in the US are what we would have expected. We have had an escalation of interventions as a reaction to the numbers which might give us pause to think we are worse off. This is not true. If you shoot an arrow, it takes time to hit the target. If you intervene in a pandemic, it takes 4 weeks to know if the intervention was successful. On March 9th, the cover of the New Yorker showed our president with a mask over his eyes. Since then, the arrows have been launched.. Let me provide an example of what is happening that I hope helps you understand our current situation.
Imagine a huge forest. Lightening hits a tree, a fire starts and begins to grow. Smoke is seen but no sky jumpers are sent in because the lookout person is probably exaggerating. (This is the point at which we could have confined the virus). The fire grows out in all directions getting larger and larger. It becomes impossible to ignore and the decision is made to create a firebreak. The firebreak needs to encircle the entire fire. Measures are taken and creation of the firebreak is underway. (Increased testing, social distancing, and closing public places) The bosses know the fire is increasing, and nothing can be done to save the trees between the firebreak and the flames. (The current numbers we are seeing). Will their intervention hold? As the fire comes closer, the bosses question whether it is big enough to hold back the umrelenting inferno. They evacuate houses on the non-fire side (Telling people at high risk to stay home and call for extra help.) The bosses recognize that when the fire hits the firebreak, sparks will fall all over the forest and they will need to be aggressive in trying to put them out.(Without testing, the sparks are landing and we do not know where to start stomping them out.) If there are too many new fires started, the firebreak only slows things down but still allows time for more help to arrive in the form of more weapons (Testing, drugs(Remdesivir is going into a large study) and vaccines) or rain (Summertime and the realization that the vast majority of trees will withstand the fire, i.e. big Minnesota pines survive and then release pine cones only after heat! )
Our fire, Covid 19, is a nasty bug that first emerged in an outdoor open marketplace in Wuhan, China in early December. The person who contracted the virus unfortunately got on a subway in a metropolis of 11 million people. The virus was officially recognized when 41 people came down with pneumonia 27 of whom had been in this same market and 14 from other parts of the city. On Jan 1, China informed the World Health Organization (WHO) and closed the market. CV 19 then spread from Wuhan to a cruise ship, to a megachurch in South Korea and to a mosque in Iran. The germ loves crowds and hitching rides on asymptomatic people. Italy went from 3 dead to 3000 in one month.
In three weeks or so, we should be able to see if our current actions, our firebreak (Social distancing and school closings etc.) have helped. Nothing has happened this week in the U.S. that was unexpected with regard to the number of people infected. All of these infections are the result of our past inaction.
So, what to do? Try to ignore the daily heat being generated in the media. Limit your TV watching of news and social media because it is designed to increase anxiety. There is a lot of nonsense, too. NPR is calm and does a nice summary. (Yesterday’s newscast ended with a performance by Yo Yo Mah, the famed cellist. ‘Songs of Comfort’ provides a way to use the arts as a positive resource in times of crisis). If you are restricted to a home quarantine, stay put along with anyone who lives with you. (My suggestion.) Interestingly, we are in a phase where the absolute risk of an individual contracting Covid 19 in the next three weeks is low. (The fire is small compared to the forest). The reason we have built a firewall is to eliminate the possibility of a person with Covid 19 from passing it on to others. If restricted to home… learn from the cloistered nuns. Set up a daily schedule of routines. For example, I no longer have a swimming pool to go to, so I started Yoga. Joan is learning the Ukulele. Bake bread. The Washington Post reminds us that Isaac Newton had to leave the university in 1665 because of a plague. He went to a farm to think. It was during this time that he began his work in calculus, theories on gravity and light. Thinking and research at home may lead to something. Have your uninfected neighbors help you by bringing supplies to your doorstep when they go out. (Work out a neighborhood system).
The average incubation period for Covid 19 is about six days, and the main symptoms last on average six days. Then recovery. The average time to hospitalization from onset of symptoms is about six days and marked with shortness of breath and fever. If you have symptoms of “flu” at this stage in the epidemic, you probably do have the flu, and not Covid 19. It would be nice to have testing available to find out and we will soon. The recognized cases will rise as we do more testing and stop missing mild cases. the death rate is the number to watch regarding progress. Four weeks from now, we will see if we have slowed this thing down. It will be brutal for awhile. It is hard watching a maelstrom rushing toward you hoping the firebreak will hold. We live with anxiety or faith. Personally, I do believe I hear planes coming with lots of fire retardants!
If you want to imagine killing the nasty virus, imagine doing this experiment. Fill a sink with water. Pour some cooking oil over the water’s surface. Then add one drop of liquid soap. Instantly, the oil’s film will disappear. Just like a virus membrane! That is what soap does to this virus. Wash your hands frequently and always for 20 seconds to get that soap in all the little crevices. In the end, there is no doubt, Covid 19, the fire, will end, and we will move on. We will be funding NIH and CDC a lot more! I hope these thoughts provide additional context for whatever you are experiencing and help with your understanding. (John Bachman Facebook 3/19/20)